中国粮食产量变化的驱动效应及其空间分异研究

粮食安全是一个国家和地区经济和社会稳定发展的基础,而粮食产量则是衡量粮食安全的最为重要指标,研究粮食产量变化的驱动效应对于实现其持续稳定增长具有重要意义。综合考虑种植业结构、农林牧渔业结构、农业生产经济收益、农业劳动力等各因素对粮食产量的影响,从农业经济学的视角出发,构建了粮食产量分解的理论框架。基于这一框架,将粮食产量变化分解为种植经济的粮食安全效应、农业结构调整效应、农业劳动力农业经济收益效应、农业劳动力当量效应等4种。采用对数平均迪氏分解模型(LMDI)和粮食生产的空间转移系数,揭示了4种效应对1978—2014年中国粮食产量的时序变化以及2000—2013年全国31省(市、区)粮食产量的空间变化的影响程度。研究结果表明:无论从时间还是空间变化方面,农业劳动力农业经济收益效应都是驱动粮食增产的首要因素,种植经济的粮食安全效应则是抑制粮食增产的首要因素。在政府主导模式下,农业结构调整对粮食增产的负面影响较小,而在农户主导模式下,农业结构调整对粮食产量的负面影响明显增强,这一结果在粮食主产区表现尤为明显。1978—2014年,中国劳动力当量效应对粮食产量变化由正向驱动作用不断向负向抑制作用转变,且其对粮食增产的抑制作用不断增强,这一现象在粮食主产区表现也尤为突出。因此,为促进中国粮食产量持续增长,尤其需要发挥政府在粮食主产区农业结构调整中的主导作用,在确保农民生产粮食基本收益的基础上,加快延伸粮食生产产业链,进一步增加农民收入来源,促进劳动力资源在城乡之间的有效配置。     

Objectively best or most acceptable? Expert and lay knowledge in Swedish wind power permit processes

This article analyses legal aspects of the Swedish wind power development, theoretically based on how different types of knowledge are represented in legal contexts, mainly in the courts. A sample of appealed wind power permits is analysed, a handful of relevant informants are interviewed – including two judges in the Land and Environment Court and the appeal court – and the legal setting is analysed. Of key interest here is the interplay between expert and lay statements in the court cases, which here is related to the concepts of calculating and communicative rationalities that are developed in the planning literature. The results indicate that the juridification – which takes place as a permit issue is appealed in the judiciary system – supports the calculating rationality more than the communicative, and that the plaintiffs often attempt to adapt in how they shape their argumentation.     

规划环评中的生态空间识别与生态影响评价探索——以长春新区发展规划为例

强化空间管理是规划环境影响评价优化空间开发、促进"多规合一"的新要求。同时,探索生态空间管控体系是国土空间规划的重点任务之一。本文以长春新区发展规划为例,提出前端空间引导、后端影响调控的生态空间管理体系。前端通过生态系统评价和生态空间识别,提出生态保护红线划定建议方案,确定开发"底线"。后端通过InVEST生境质量评价技术,对生境退化度及生境质量进行空间评价,识别生境威胁源影响区域,提出优化空间布局的规划调控建议。研究表明:耕地是新区发生变化幅度最为显著的用地类型,纳入生态空间管控的用地约占16.2%。其中,15.8%的用地建议纳入生态保护红线进行管理。未来城市开发对生境有一定影响,整体生境质量平均值由0.401下降至0.328。     

Current Practice and Future Prospects for Social Data in Coastal and Ocean Planning

Coastal and ocean planning comprises a broad field of practice. The goals, political processes, and approaches applied to planning initiatives may vary widely. However, all planning processes ultimately require adequate information on both the biophysical and social attributes of a planning region. In coastal and ocean planning practice, there are well‐established methods to assess biophysical attributes; however, less is understood about the role and assessment of social data. We conducted the first global assessment of the incorporation of social data in coastal and ocean planning. We drew on a comprehensive review of planning initiatives and a survey of coastal and ocean practitioners. There was significantly more incorporation of social data in multiuse versus conservation‐oriented planning. Practitioners engaged a wide range of social data, including governance, economic, and cultural attributes of planning regions and human impacts data. Less attention was given to ecosystem services and social–ecological linkages, both of which could improve coastal and ocean planning practice. Although practitioners recognize the value of social data, little funding is devoted to its collection and incorporation in plans. Increased capacity and sophistication in acquiring critical social and ecological data for planning is necessary to develop plans for more resilient coastal and ocean ecosystems and communities. We suggest that improving social data monitoring, and in particular spatial social data, to complement biophysical data, is necessary for providing holistic information for decision‐support tools and other methods. Moving beyond people as impacts to people as beneficiaries, through ecosystem services assessments, holds much potential to better incorporate the tenets of ecosystem‐based management into coastal and ocean planning by providing targets for linked biodiversity conservation and human welfare outcomes. La Práctica Actual y los Prospectos Futuros para los Datos Sociales en la Planeación Costera y Oceánica     

全国近岸海域水质空间插值算法精度分析

空间插值技术对近海环境数据的分析和表征具有广泛应用价值,但目前针对各类模型适用性和精度比较的研究很少。基于2009年全国近岸海域299个站位的水质监测数据,利用交叉检验法,对3种插值算法13种模型的空间拟合结果进行分析和验证。结果表明,13种模型的模拟值与实测值显著相关(r=0.643~0.750,P0.01,n=299),说明其均适用于近岸海域水质的空间模拟;综合比较模拟结果与实测结果的相关系数、平均误差、平均绝对误差、均方差及偏离程度,排序为IDW(p2)Spline-TensionIDW(p3)IDW(p4)IDW(p1)IDW(p5)IDW(p6)Kriging-GuassianKriging-Spherical,Kriging-CircularKriging-LinearKriging-ExponentialSpline-Regularized,提出IDW(p2)是精度最优的空间插值模型。     

Expanding Kenya's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity to maximize coverage of plant diversity

Biodiversity is highly valuable and critically threatened by anthropogenic degradation of the natural environment. In response, governments have pledged enhanced protected‐area coverage, which requires scarce biological data to identify conservation priorities. To assist this effort, we mapped conservation priorities in Kenya based on maximizing alpha (species richness) and beta diversity (species turnover) of plant communities while minimizing economic costs. We used plant‐cover percentages from vegetation surveys of over 2000 plots to build separate models for each type of diversity. Opportunity and management costs were based on literature data and interviews with conservation organizations. Species richness was predicted to be highest in a belt from Lake Turkana through Mount Kenya and in a belt parallel to the coast, and species turnover was predicted to be highest in western Kenya and along the coast. Our results suggest the expanding reserve network should focus on the coast and northeastern provinces of Kenya, where new biological surveys would also fill biological data gaps. Meeting the Convention on Biological Diversity target of 17% terrestrial coverage by 2020 would increase representation of Kenya's plant communities by 75%. However, this would require about 50 times more funds than Kenya has received thus far from the Global Environment Facility.     

上海城郊土壤重金属含量的空间变异与分布特征

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤环境质量的影响，选择上海城郊结合部为研究区域，采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Mn 5种重金属的空间变异结构和分布特征进行了分析。结果表明：土壤Cu、Cr、Mn、Pb、Zn均属中等变异，土壤Mn含量服从正态分布，土壤Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn含量服从对数正态分布；半方差函数模型拟合结果显示土壤Mn符合指数模型，土壤Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn符合线性模型、其中土壤Cu、Pb、Zn为纯块金效应模型，反映了城郊结合部土壤污染空间变异的复杂性。通过泛克里格插值可直观反应表层土壤重金属含量空间分布特征，发现土壤Cr、Mn呈岛状，土壤Cu、Pb、Zn呈多岛状分布的特点，工业和交通污染源是影响土壤重金属空间分布的重要因素     

城市不同交通圈(带)土壤重金属多元统计分析及空间分布研究以武汉市为例

土壤重金属污染是近年来备受重视的环境问题,其不仅直接破坏环境质量,还间接危害人体健康,因此研究城市土壤中重金属的累积和分布状况具有一定的意义。选取武汉市不同交通圈为研究区域,分析了表土中Ni、Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb和Zn 6种重金属元素的累积状况和污染来源,评价了重金属的污染程度及生态危害等级,并运用Arc GIS空间插值得到元素的空间分布图。得出以下结论:(1)就平均值而言,Ni、Cr、Cu 3种元素均在省背景值以内,Cd平均值约是国家二级标准的10倍,累积最为严重;(2)多元统计分析结果显示6种元素可聚类为两类,Ni、Cr和Cd、Cu、Pn、Zn,前者主要污染源为气候、母质、年代等成土因素,后者主要受到交通、工业等人为活动及成土母质的的影响;(3)不同研究区累积情况不同,内环最严重,三环带次之,二环带最小;(4)研究区重金属污染评价及潜在生态风险评价结果为重度污染或强度生态危害,且程度上都是内环三环带二环带。     

Population Distribution and Influencing Factors Based on ESDA

Based on the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) technique and geographic information system(GIS) platform,with statistic data of counties in 2005,this paper confirms that there is a large population density gap between counties in 2005 because the Gini coefficient is 0.55.Population distribution does not change a lot during the past decades,and the southeast China is still much more densely populated than the northwest China.The global spatial autocorrelation of population distribution is obvious because Moran’s I scores 0.42 and local spatial autocorrelation is partly significant.Climate and elevation are still the main natural influencing factors.Meanwhile industrial structure and transportation significantly influence population distribution.Different combinations of natural factors have different effects on population distribution.For a long term,climate and terrain factor stability affect population distribution.But its influence will be weakened by progress of technology.Economic development is the main factor that changes population distribution for a short term.     

长三角地区城市土地开发强度特征及影响因素分析

合理控制土地开发强度是提高土地利用效率和改善环境质量的重要手段。以建设用地面积占该区域土地总面积的比例为土地开发强度的表征指标，运用GIS软件和经济计量模型，探讨了1996~2008年长三角地区城市土地开发强度的特征及其影响因素。结果表明：长三角城市土地开发强度总体上呈增长趋势，城市间土地开发强度差异明显，并且具有空间集聚特征，形成了以上海、杭州为中心的高强度地区，这与目前长三角经济增长极相吻合。同时，经济增长、城镇化、产业结构与城市土地开发强度之间显著正相关，行政区划调整与城市土地开发强度在短期内表现为负相关关系，土地管理政策的影响尚不显著。今后，只有转变经济发展方式，严格执行土地管理政策和城市规划，合理推动城镇化和城市产业布局，才能使城市土地开发强度保持在合理水平。将为长三角地区城市土地可持续利用提供参考，对控制城市建设用地规模和发展方向，也有一定的理论和现实指导意义